April 26, 2025
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HERE'S MY TAKE
Most Canadians will turn to their televisions on Monday evening to watch coverage of Canadian election results. Rather than comment on the campaign that was, let me highlight four important aspects worth watching as we process Monday’s election-night drama and the resulting government that will lead Canada for the next several years:
1. Vote splits determine the outcome.
The NDP and Bloc Québécois popular vote numbers can be more significant in determining the election’s outcome than those of the Liberal and Conservative parties. In the three elections the Conservatives have most recently won government (2006, 2008, and 2011) the NDP received 17.5 percent, 18.2 percent, and 30.6 percent of the popular vote, while the Bloc received 10.5 percent, 10 percent, and 6 percent of the vote. (Keep in mind that the Bloc only runs in Quebec, and these are national percentages.) In the 2021 election, the NDP had 17.8 percent support nationally and Bloc 7.6 percent. Given that Quebec is just under a quarter of the population, you can multiply its “national support” percentage by four to get a rough idea of where the party stands in Quebec ridings. In the current campaign, polls going into the weekend had the NDP around 9 percent national support and the Bloc at 6 percent. If this holds on election day, it will mean that nearly half of those who voted NDP in the last federal election will be voting Liberal this time. In practical terms, this means the Conservatives need to secure a closer to 45 percent popular vote nationally in order to win many of the suburban seats, without which they cannot form a government. Similarly, in Quebec, the Bloc’s ability to hold or increase its vote will be the most likely determinant if the Liberals are able to win enough seats to form a majority government.
2. Consider the source.
Presumably, most Canadians will rely on one of the mainstream television networks for election night coverage, despite surveys indicating that they are split almost 50-50 regarding their confidence in media institutions. It is worth noting that, especially in this campaign, the media have a self-interest in the election’s outcome, given the significant public subsidies most of them receive, which they are less than transparent about. A hat-tip is due to Andrew Coyne, one of the few mainstream journalists to highlight the inherent conflict of interest this poses for the media. The Hub should also get credit for reporting that the media subsidy cheques were received—and in their case donated to a charity—in the middle of the election campaign. Peter Menzies has provided excellent analysis, noting that the election's outcome is likely to have job implications for those covering it. While I am sure media subsidies won’t be a prominent topic of conversation on Monday, viewers need to be aware that those analyzing the results may well be in a conflict of interest.
3. Pay attention to the regions.
I've been beating this drum for a while now, but a trip to British Columbia this week reinforced the reality that there are deep regional divisions in Canada. It’s easy to overlook these divisions when examining macro outcomes. Will multiple provinces vote differently than their expected norms? We can’t know that ahead of time. But as someone who has travelled across the country regularly for over three decades, it seems to me that today, Canada’s regions all see the national interest in starkly different ways.
The deepest division I’ve seen is in the West. This goes well beyond the usual proxy for Western concerns, pipeline politics. (In any case, that issue has changed in this election, with both the Liberals and Conservatives discussing the need to broaden the markets for our natural resources.) There has been considerable mainstream critique, including from Western sources, regarding the interventions of Premier Smith and Preston Manning in this campaign. Often overlooked is that they’re articulating the perception that the federal-provincial relationship is failing. The Westerners I have spoken to admired Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet on the debate stage, including the English debate, where he was able to address the entire country. They liked how he acknowledged that he was not running to form a government but would only support the party in power to the extent that Quebec's interests were being addressed. However, by the end of the conversation, they’ve concluded that the West could not adopt Quebec’s strategy because “the system is rigged” against them. Here’s how the “system” works out:
These inequities have been part of the Canadian story since Confederation, as the country's bicultural history is structurally intertwined with its federal system of ten provinces. However, there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that today, frustration with the dysfunction of federalism has reached an intensity I have never experienced before. The availability of regional voices that can represent the views of the regions to the federal government, rather than those of elites in the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal triangle, will be a critical factor in determining whether the next prime minister can successfully maintain national unity.
4. The mixed meanings of high turnout.
Everything seems to be pointing to a higher voter turnout than the 62.5 percent that showed up in 2021 or even the 68.3 percent turnout in the 2015 “change election.” The previous “change of government elections” were 1993 (69.6 percent), 1984 (75.3 percent) and 1979 (75.7 percent). The 1988 “free trade election” attracted a turnout of 75.3 percent. We’ve seen the record-setting advance poll turnout in this election with 7.3 million votes already cast, which is 25 percent more than previous advance poll highs. Whether that reflects the increased usage of advance polls, the fact that the polls were conveniently open on a statutory holiday, or a genuine increased voter interest in the election is up for debate—I suspect it’s a combination of the three. What is particularly interesting about this election, however, is that the Conservatives seem to have a plurality of support from males under 50 (a constituency not known for high voter turnouts), while the Liberals seem to be attracting a plurality of women of all ages, as well as older men. If the high voter turnout is disproportionately among younger men (who attend record-setting Conservative rallies and are also more likely to follow podcasters than mainstream media), there may be some surprising results when the ballots are counted. Then again, the high turnout could equally be progressives focused on preventing the possibility of a Prime Minister Poilievre. His negatives are naturally higher than typical (in part due to his combative persona), resulting in only 17 percent of Canadians finding him “likeable and kind.” Many will analyze the numbers after the fact to figure out whether it was fear or confidence that motivated the electorate to turn out (or maybe not).
Monday, April 28 will almost certainly be a significant day in Canadian politics, marking a choice of direction by Canadians. On Monday evening, many of us will be watching the drama unfold live. Here is hoping and praying that the results will contribute to the unity and flourishing of this land that we are blessed to call ours.
WHAT I’M READING
Surviving Extinction
Ross Douthat’s New York Times feature on the impact of technology on culture, offers hope amid dystopian predictions. His central point is that business as usual isn’t enough; it will take a deliberate, self-conscious, and somewhat fanatical effort to ensure the things we love will move forward. “(I)n the year 2100 there will still be nations, families, religions, children, marriages, great books,” he writes. “But how much survives will depend on our own deliberate choices—the choice to date and love and marry and procreate, the choice to fight for particular nations and traditions and art forms and worldviews, the choice to limit our exposure to the virtual, not necessarily refusing new technology but trying every day, in every setting, to make ourselves its master.”
Religion and Charity
Tim Cestnick used his Globe and Mail column to provide context for the recommendations made by a parliamentary committee to remove the “advancement of religion” as a charitable purpose. I doubt this is likely to proceed in the short term, but there seems to be a conscious campaign among some to advance this agenda, and it is a file worth following.
Generational Divides
Election polls are time-bound and will soon be outdated by Monday’s official results. However, David Colleto’s analysis of his Abacus Data polling provides insight into generational differences that extend well beyond how different cohorts will vote. Colleto translates the prevailing hopes and fears of each cohort into their voting implications. Still, the results of the election will be as likely to disappoint as to answer, and those hopes and fears will still deserve our attention.
How Will the Court Interpret Trump?
The back-and-forth of Trump's tariff tactics is too much for a weekly newsletter to cover thoroughly. However, this Politico essay provides a more thorough take than most on the legal arguments that will likely be in play when this matter ultimately comes before the Supreme Court, which will have to decide the limits on the president’s powers.
NextGEN’s Next Deadline
I try to avoid flagrant Cardus self-promotion in this newsletter, but the deadline for applying to be part of our next cohort of fellows seeking answers to questions of faith, vocation, leadership, and public life is April 30, so I figured I’d give it a plug. The complete details are on the website, but this will be the fourth group of twelve 25-34-year-old emerging leaders that we will have the privilege of working with. Your help in passing this along to any worthy candidates you think should consider this opportunity is appreciated.
MEANINGFUL METRICS
Brand Erosion
Walk through a Canadian grocery store or mall, and you’ll see prominent “Buy Canadian” signs all around you. Retailers instinctively understand that the trade wars initiated by US President Trump provide an opportunity for brands competing with American alternatives. Axios provided a fascinating study of 16 major US brands over the first quarter of 2025, noting that twelve of them had declined in favourability. As any data scientist worth their salt (regardless of the country in which that salt is mined) will caution, correlation is not causation, and assigning hard numbers to complex phenomena is challenging. That’s especially true when dealing with something like a brand, which involves a complex mix of variables. Still, it did catch my attention.
TAKE IT TO-GO
For Whom the Box Polls
Someone used a play on Hemingway’s “For Whom the Bell Tolls” to metaphorically describe the political consequences that some of our leaders may face following Monday’s election. While the implications of those ballot box polls may detonate careers, the political process is thankfully still far more humane than Hemingway’s tale.
This is a platform to make puns great again, but I will forgo that campaign for this week to express my thanks—and ask you to express yours—to all of our fellow-citizens who have been intensely involved in the political process. Regardless of party or platform, it takes courage to put yourself out there. My experience is that the vast majority do so for a noble reason: to serve their country. I’ve put my name on a ballot before. I can attest to the honour that comes with the confidence that others place in you. I can also attest to the deep disappointment that comes when some of your fellow citizens decline to support you at the ballot box (especially those who told you to your face that they would). And then there are the campaign managers, office workers, and volunteers who devote months of their lives to the cause. Not to be overlooked are the Elections Canada officials who do their best to ensure it’s all done fairly. The days that follow an election are a time to recover and rest, but also to deal with the disappointments of dashed dreams. There are 1,958 names on the ballot in the combined 343 local races. By definition, most of them will experience electoral defeat. However, putting your name forward is in itself a service and success. We tip our hat and express our gratitude for those who make our democratic process work, knowing that Canada is a better place because of your efforts.