February 24, 2024
December 16, 2023
HERE'S MY TAKE
Before beginning my weekly commentary, I’d like to share a special message from Cardus CEO Michael Van Pelt:
A year has 365 days on the calendar (yes, I know that 2024 will have 366 but that's not crucial to my point). When we take Scripture seriously, it helps us count our days and apply our hearts to wisdom. But time is also an ever-rolling stream where the issues and discussions, relationships and opportunities, are constantly evolving, requiring prudence and wisdom.
Prudence and wisdom. That’s why I, as CEO of Cardus, read Insights. And I’m grateful Ray has given me some of his space to share a brief message with you before you get to his weekly comments.
It is a blessing to travel our wonderful country and extensively gather opinions, ideas, and good advice. Constantly, I end up “continuing conversations” that Ray has stimulated in Cardus Insights. I too respect Ray’s discernment on matters of public life and appreciate his willingness to hold his views lightly and learn from others.
At the beginning of COVID, I challenged Ray to use his daily research and long experience to share his thoughts with our Cardus community of patrons. What started as a newsletter to a few hundred has grown to a significant multiple of that! We are thrilled by that and welcome all of you to the Cardus community by sharing in this newsletter. That said, Cardus is a registered charity and relies on patronage to be a faithful presence in the public square. Many of you are Cardus donors and for that we thank you. Many of you are not, so I would respectfully ask you to consider sending a supportive gift. This page provides the details to process such a donation.
May you find joy awaiting the celebration of the Saviour of the World.
Michael Van Pelt, Cardus CEO
. . . And Anticipating 2024 Thanks for reading Michael’s message.
With this being the final issue of Insights in 2023, I thought I’d reflect on some things that aren’t yet headlines, but could very well draw our attention in 2024.
The most obvious one is the United States presidential election on November 5, 2024. It will undoubtedly be significant, and not just for US domestic politics. Dozens of business leaders have told me they’re delaying major investment and construction decisions until after the election. Internationally, the results will matter in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and in the geopolitics of East Asia where the trajectories of China and North Korea especially cause nervousness.
That’s not the only election the world will be watching. The UK general election must happen by January 28, 2025. While most expect Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to wait as long as possible hoping for his government’s popularity to improve, a 2024 election seems almost inevitable. If current trends hold, Labour leader Keir Starmer will end an almost 15-year run of Conservative-led government in the UK. I suppose the European general parliamentary elections scheduled for June will give us a preview as to whether the right-leaning populism, which has been such a factor in various recent European elections, is a trend or a blip. British stature on the global stage means its election results (especially if definitive in a particular direction) will have broad ripples. There’s also an election in Russia in March although the outcome of that can reasonably be predicted well in advance and probably doesn’t even qualify as “news.”
The events of the past year have reminded Canadians that global affairs affect us significantly and are mostly beyond our control. We’ve seen:
- Russian and Chinese interference in our elections
- Indian involvement in the political assassination of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil
- Protests on our streets almost every weekend since the October 7th Hamas terrorism in Israel and Israel’s fiery response
All these things remind us that we mostly respond to decisions made elsewhere; we don’t direct them. Throw into the mix the reality that 62% of our economy is tied to trade, and geopolitics affects supply chains and our ability to continue to receive many of the everyday goods and services we rely on. If Canadians want to understand domestic affairs, we must pay attention to foreign affairs.
But there are also significant domestic issues that will affect us, which aren’t widely publicised or understood. Many of our institutions are broken, unable to deal with present challenges with no obvious solutions. The fact that enrollment in non-government schools is surging reflects a failure of government-run public education. Most independent schools have waiting lists and the system makes creating more supply very difficult. Criminal cases are being tossed due to inadequate court resources. Meanwhile, allocating more than 30 days of trial was inadequate to deal with the politically charged case of Freedom Convoy leaders who are accused of mischief, intimidation, and counselling others to break the law. Regardless of your views on these issues, most would agree that there is something imbalanced about the resources directed to this case considering the comparatively dubious evidence that was called. The backdrop to all of this is the Crown dropping many of the charges laid during COVID and the courts either dismissing as moot or choosing not to substantively engage in the rights issues that COVID measures raised. Taken together, I could see the boiling cauldron of legal issues and questions creating serious credibility issues for the judicial system. Bad legal decisions can be overcome; a broadening distrust of the legal process is much more difficult.
Speaking of systems not adapting in a credible manner, the Senate changes of recent years deserve more attention. Last week, the Senate amended a Conservative-sponsored bill passed by the House of Commons, effectively helping the Liberal government escape a partisan conundrum. The details of this skirmish are less significant than the bigger question of accountability. Prime Minister Trudeau unilaterally has achieved Senate reform by appointing “independent senators” (although it’s generally acknowledged that philosophically most lean left) and having no senators sit in the Liberal caucus. While individual partisan senators in the previous arrangement may have lacked accountability, their fellow partisans would face the consequences of their actions in federal elections. There was at least implicit accountability. By getting rid of the partisan labels, neither the parties nor the individual senators face any consequences for their actions. The gravitational forces of politics will inevitably result in the backroom arm-twisting that took place last week to fulfil a government agenda and, even more significantly, the almost irresistible pressure for the Senate to misuse its power to thwart an action of the elected House of Commons on a politically divisive question. It may not happen in 2024, but an eventual constitutional crisis seems inevitable.
There are many more issues that deserve attention, like security, post-secondary education, and federal-provincial relations. But I’ll limit myself to one more: artificial intelligence.
Right now, an IQ of 70 or lower is formally defined as “intellectual disability.” In practice (relying here on a conversation with a professional I trust), an 85 IQ is probably the cut-off for cohesive functioning within most workplaces and society without conscious steps of accommodation. So, what happens when AI eliminates the majority of the jobs filled by those with an IQ in the 85-100 range? Sure, new jobs will replace the old, but are we unwittingly setting up a whole new underclass which neither our employment systems nor our social systems are prepared to accommodate?
It’s hard to anticipate the year ahead with optimism given the heavy storm clouds that seem all around. But this is where I take comfort in the finiteness of being human. As a Christian, my comfort is not only that every person has dignity and worth, bringing potential for beauty, hope, and flourishing when we live as we are called. (Often, that flourishing is even highlighted in how we honour the dignity of those less privileged.)
But these dark clouds are not the whole story. I take great comfort that fully explaining and perfecting the world isn’t ultimately my job (even if I’m a pundit). Just as in the darkness of 2,000 years ago, there is a light today to which the people who are walking in darkness can look.
Gospel light not only provides hope to our soul to encourage us. It also provides wisdom to light our paths. It shows us that power and success don’t always come in the form that we expect. Christmas reminds us that there is a deeper story behind the narrative. I can’t sort through all the details of God’s providence, even as I’m vocationally called to parse the details of our current circumstance and hopefully provide some practical light on the situation. So, let’s never let the darkness of the details crowd out the light. Christmas isn’t just a celebration and time off–it’s a reminder that there is hope that we can hold even when the subject of our day-to-day lives seems dark.
WHAT I’M READING
Keeping Secrets
The Supreme Court heard a case this week in which the core issue is “how the absolute confidentiality granted to police informants can co-exist with the principle of open courts.” There are obviously degrees of confidentiality that are required to uphold the principle of open courts. An absolutist open approach would result simply in some cases not being pursued at all. Lady Justice is about balance. It seems this case will provide an opportunity for the courts to adjust the weights on the scale.
Involving Parents
My colleague Joanna DeJong VanHof made the case in the Financial Post that “keeping silent” is also a problem within our educational system and that a good education involves parenting as much as teaching. Educators defend their silence as preventing “copycat acts,” but VanHof suggests this “absurdity” contradicts the wisdom that involving parents at every step of the educational journey increases the effectiveness of our educational efforts.
Social Finance
Imagine Canada released a report on Social Finance this week and while these 42 pages aren’t for everyone, figuring out the shifting lines between the for-profit and not-for-profit worlds is a significant challenge for many. The report observes the increasing number of hybrid organizations and the complexity of regulation and even structures that are required that such organizations have to navigate. Those serving as directors on charities looking at alternative revenue streams would be well-served to give this a skim.
The U.S.’s (Changing) Role in the World?
A Foreign Affairs essay helpfully explores the changing global context within which a changing United States needs to figure out its role. “A US grand strategy that is premised on mistaken assumptions will lead the country and the world astray. On measure after measure, the United States remains in a commanding position compared with its major competitors and rivals. Yet it does confront a very different international landscape.” There are various takes on how accurate the descriptor of the US as a “self-doubting superpower” is, but it seems that most recognise that the future is unlikely to be a straightforward trajectory from the present.
MEANINGFUL METRICS
Admittedly the title Living Life Well is a bit of bait and switch. The graph is about preparing for death. My work on the euthanasia file over the past decade has highlighted for me that part of living well is preparing to die well. One hundred percent of us die. Our challenge is that often we avoid the subject, and so we are ill-equipped to deal with the death of loved ones or to prepare wisely for our own.
Death is never a happy topic. There are good theological reasons for that. It is a consequence of sin. But when I saw this coverage of a recent UK poll on death and dying, a few interesting tidbits jumped out. Almost double the rate of those unemployed “felt depression at the prospect of their own death” compared to those who were working. When it comes to preparation for death (financially, legally, spiritually, practically, and relationally), the numbers divide out almost evenly between those who are prepared and those who admit to not having dealt with these matters. Age and religiosity are significant factors in these breakdowns. For an increasingly socially isolated society, avoiding topics of death, loss, and grieving only magnifies the issues. For people of faith, it also provides a context for understanding the hope that is in us, which is significant both to prepare for what happens after we die as well as for how we now live.
TAKE IT TO-GO
Milking It
My wordplay take-away can rightly be accused of sometimes “milking it for all its worth”—or even of being udderly ridiculous. I’ve been accused of churning out puns while skimming the substance of the news of the day. But one of my American colleagues pointed out to me that the United States Congress was similarly guilty (no bull), taking its last sitting day of 2023 to use “cream of the crop” alliterations in passing a “whole milk for school cafeterias” bill Republican Representative Virginia Foxx was uncowed and put the whole thing in a Christmas context. “The nutrients in whole milk, like protein, calcium and vitamin D, provide the fuel Santa needs to travel the whole globe in one night,” she told Congress. “Whole milk is the unsung hero of his Christmas journey.” The entire incident confirms that Virginia clearly believes there is a Santa Claus. (Sadly, the bill doesn’t seem to have a Santa clause.)
On a more serious note, on behalf of the entire Insights team (Daniel, Dayna, and Stephen all faithfully do important behind-the-scenes work to make this happen like clockwork each week—thank you!), we wish all of our readers a most blessed celebration of the Saviour’s birth, a restful and refreshing time with family and friends, and a most prosperous 2024.
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