May 25, 2024
August 17, 2024
HERE'S MY TAKE
August news feeds are usually light on real political news and decisions. Politicos are out on the fundraising circuit, replenishing the resources for the battles ahead, and positioning themselves and their organisations for what comes next.
This year’s American political scene has been a bit of an exception. The roller-coaster of unexpected twists and turns that saw a last-minute change to the Democratic ticket has thrown upside down polling prognostications. After this week’s Democratic convention, perhaps the campaign will become a bit more typical, although a September 18th criminal sentencing court date for former president Trump will certainly provide big headlines that may overshadow the usual partisan bickering, stump speeches, and horserace reporting. What isn’t focused on as much, but will be very consequential for long-term governing are the elections for the “down-ticket” candidates who will determine the make-up of the House of Representatives, the Senate, and state governorships. These results, particularly the fight between parties to control Congress, will significantly shape what it is that whoever is president come January will be able to do.
In Canada, speculation continues around an expected summer cabinet shuffle to signal a message reset by Prime Minister Trudeau and the governing Liberals. The real action, however, is likely to occur after the House of Commons resumes sitting on September 16th. The sustainability of this government may depend on a decision by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh as to whether to pull the plug on the supply and confidence agreement. There are many complicated political considerations for all parties (save for the Conservatives who want an election as soon as possible to take advantage of their present significant bank account, organizational, and polling advantages). There is already considerable positioning taking place that seems to anticipate majority Conservative control of the House of Commons (which, in the Canadian system, gives the executive branch of government extensive powers to implement their agenda without real constraints). The recent Supreme Court ruling that governments cannot shield themselves from lawsuits that stem from legislative decisions seems to be a warning shot from the court that they might make life for the governing Conservatives a bit more complicated. The Senate is considering a motion that would preemptively declare that it would not approve any legislation that incorporates Section 33 of the Constitution (the notwithstanding clause).
The temptation is to prognosticate and try to anticipate what might come next. My prognostications (plus six bucks) are worth about as much (and will last about as long) as a Starbucks summer special. What is almost certain is that some of the political outcomes that will unfold won’t be what I think is best. But as these events unfold, is there anything to say even when you disagree? I desire better government and leadership, even in circumstances that are not ideal. What is the sort of outcome I can realistically hope for in those circumstances? How do I evaluate the day-to-day decision-making of the leaders I am given, regardless of whether they are the leaders I prefer? Those questions help me fix my focus on long-term goals and avoid cynicism.
A Christian public witness starts with confessing belief in a God who is in control. That defines it as an essentially hopeful witness – God is not going to abandon the world, no matter how badly some of us may be messing things up. Living in hope is a posture, but it is also a call to action. We are called to pray and to work in the here and now.
All of our work takes place within a framework that is shaped by the leadership of others. Leadership involves content and direction, but it also involves an approach. My go-to definition of leadership borrows from Max DePree: “The first responsibility of a leader is to define reality. The last is to say thank you. In between the two, the leader must become a servant and a debtor.”
Defining reality. Leaders assess the times and discern what is really happening. They help followers understand and cultivate a shared sense of what is needed next. Leaders are courageous in challenging the prevailing trends when required. They use the power of their position to help others see what direction to go. Defining reality as a leader requires telling the truth and making space for those who disagree to do so respectfully, even as you consider and publicly acknowledge the arguments of those who disagree. I will be evaluating whoever is in leadership by the coherence, clarity, and integrity with which they define reality.
Saying thank you. Leadership is more about what you enable others to do than what you do yourself. A leader’s words are only as effective as the willingness of followers to heed them. Yes, political leaders have coercive power and their words have consequences that impact those who disagree. There are times when coercion is required. But persuasion is always more effective. Part of persuasion is showing respect for the dignity and agency of those who are being persuaded. It means acknowledging and thanking them for their part in whatever successes are achieved. Saying thank you to others in an authentic manner recognizes their dignity, worth, and contributions.
Becoming a servant and a debtor. In concentric circles of influence, beginning with those in the inner circle but broadening to all of the institutions and individuals that comprise a healthy society, a leader provides the space and opportunity for the gifts of all to be stewarded in service of the common good. The choices leaders make regarding the empowering of others are usually defining. Effective leadership is as courageous in trusting others as it is humble, recognizing that my success relies on the decisions of others. Leadership is service.
Using such a seemingly idealistic description of leadership to frame present-day politics can seem a bit naïve. But reminding ourselves of fundamental realities is always useful if we are to continue to make faithful contributions to the public square as we find it, warts and all. I wish it was easy to draw a straight line between the ideal and the everyday reality, but on many days that is fraught territory. This is, I suppose, why we continue to reflect prayerfully each day, trying to make sense of what comes our way even as we express our dependence on and confidence in a sovereign and gracious God whose promises to us are sure and reliable.
WHAT I’M READING
Debating Ballot Boxes and Courts
I’ve referenced the recent Supreme Court R. v. Power decision a few times in recent weeks given the significant implications that it might have regarding the nature of Canadian democratic governance. The debate continues and in The Hub this week, Kerry Sun and Stéphane Sérafin challenge the interpretation of Joanna Baron and Christine Van Geyn who celebrate the decision as “an important and principled win for skeptics of state power who desire accountability.” All of these participants are respected commentators on the conservative side of Canadian punditry and reading both sides of the debate highlights important nuances.
Housing's Catch-22
It’s well-documented that the demand for Canadian housing has increased at higher rates than the supply for housing with the result of greatly increased (and now unaffordable to many) house prices. This Financial Post piece, however, adds nuance to the debate. If income growth occurs more quickly than housing growth, there will be an “induced demand” impact in which those currently not in the market (think adults living with their parents saving for a house) will be able to enter the market, increasing demand and driving up prices in what might appear to be a classic “Catch-22” dilemma.
Poker Predictions
Nate Silver is a poker player turned pollster and his New York Times interview on the current U.S. political scene contains several worthwhile insights. In addition to his informed take interpreting the current polling, he critiques the “indigo blob” of liberal and mainstream establishment voices that overvalues “credentialism.” The consequence is a decreased trust that, applying some of the logic about risk behaviour learned from his poker days, Silver tries to sort out, suggesting how the risk and bluff factors of the campaign might translate into a winning hand.
Contending with Authoritarianism
In Cathy Young’s Bulwark reflections on a recent Washington D.C. conference regarding “Liberalism for the 21st Century,” she provides a useful literature review of several influential perspectives and critiques from major books and essays, many of which I have linked to in this space. There are illiberal movements on both the left and the right. She surveys several helpful perspectives that seem to take seriously the challenge of Brookings scholar William Galston who notes that “if we want to make a deep defence of liberalism, we have to take the deepest criticisms of liberalism on board.” Those wanting an overview of the debate may appreciate this piece.
Flagrant Self-Promotion
A RealTalk podcast dropped this week featuring two Hamilton-area businessmen I am privileged to count as friends and some think-tank guy named Pennings. I try not to link to too much of my own stuff, but this conversation on the positives of business and thinking about generosity and philanthropy in a principled manner aren’t topics addressed every day. I suspect some Insights readers may find this useful, so I pass it along.
MEANINGFUL METRICS
I’ll admit to triple-checking this graph when I first saw it a few weeks ago. More than half of Canadians are not ready to affirm that the death toll of six million Jewish deaths in the Holocaust is accurate? One in four convinced that the number is exaggerated? I checked the June report on which these data were based. Not surprisingly, the younger demographics (especially those under 35) have much higher levels of Holocaust skepticism, although it was alarming to see that in almost every age demographic, there were substantial increases in skepticism measured in a poll conducted in May 2024, compared to one conducted just three months earlier in February 2024. These attitudes are not just being expressed as opinions. Reports of anti-Semitic incidents in Canada more than doubled in 2023 with protests containing anti-Semitic messages continuing as a weekly norm in many Canadian cities.
TAKE IT TO-GO
Some Oscar Jazz
The bronze, life-size statue of Oscar Peterson, on a piano bench outside of Ottawa’s National Arts Center is one I pass when I walk to work. It is among my favourites. Thursday was the 99th anniversary of Oscar’s birth so I figured I’d do a bit of wordplay jazz and incorporate a tribute as this week’s Take It To-Go. It doesn’t meet the usual criteria for this paragraph, but Peterson didn’t do anything by the book. He was famous for having added an extra octave to the bass end of the keyboard giving him 97 rather than the usual 88 keys to work with. Knowing that it would be at least a minor, if not a major, problem if this paragraph ends up off-key, I’m doing my best to insert some jazz-tastic puns, hoping that somehow I land on all the right notes. But jazz is an acquired taste and I know that some of you would rather I just put my musical efforts bach where they classically belong.
Ok, I’ve established the fact. Music isn’t my forte. Two decades after his passing, Oscar Peterson continues to provide good value, his memory having been commemorated with a one-dollar coin that remains in circulation. Let’s also not forget about his eight Grammys. He wasn’t eligible for an Oscar, but the film about his life is titled "Oscar Peterson: Black + White."
My music theory memories recall that the final notes are called a coda and that’s where we’ve come to now. As for the liner notes, from the top we’ve heard “August transitions,” and “September leadership hopes”—with a bit of Peterson and jazz thrown in for the key notes of the composition just completed. The next performance of Insights is scheduled for your inbox next Saturday.
Until then.
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