March 29, 2025
August 26, 2023
HERE'S MY TAKE
I engage in occasional punditry in this space, not so much because I have any unique insider knowledge but because readers tell me they welcome it. We are now near the midpoint between the last federal election held in September 2021 and the latest date when the next federal election must be held (October 20, 2025), so this is as good a time as any to provide a general assessment of the Canadian federal political scene.
Consistent recent polling shows a decent lead for the Conservatives over the Liberals and suggests this will result in a change of government in the next election. That seems the most likely scenario to be sure. There are, however, many factors at play with much time for course corrections and unexpected surprises. There is always echo of a British Prime Minister's sage advice: “Events, my boy, events.”
The governing Liberals have just completed their summer cabinet retreat in which housing and affordability emerged as the primary talking points. That wasn’t the plan even just a few weeks ago. Then the Prime Minister was insisting that housing was primarily a provincial responsibility and shifted most questions to talking points about climate and niche government programs like childcare and dental. Time will tell whether the housing strategies that experts pitched to cabinet this week will translate into concrete action this fall. Even if they do, it's almost certain the opposition will critique them as inadequate. Given the complexity and extent of the Canadian housing crisis (the CMHC suggests we need 5.8 million additional housing units by 2030; the present pace is about 250,000 per year), there are many Canadians who will concur with opposition critique based on their own experience. “Sunny ways” and “standing up for the middle class and those seeking to join it” won’t be an easy brand to keep. Even if you are not in the market for a new house, most mortgages come due at least once every five years, and the average Canadian renewal amounts to an increase of about 30 percent of mortgage interest.
Still, even though Prime Minister Trudeau’s disapproval ratings hover around 60%, he has been there before, prior to both the 2019 and 2021 elections, and recovered. Conventional wisdom says that the longer the government is in office the more difficult this is to do, as Canadians have a habit of changing the team in charge every decade or so. But Mr. Trudeau has made a career of exceeding expectations. His skill as a campaigner who can connect with voters remains an underappreciated mystery, especially to those who dislike him intensely. Recent reports of caucus and party discontent will have to be managed, but the lack of an obvious successor to Mr. Trudeau (who has the profile and skill to keep both the Quebec and Ontario support essential for continued Liberal success) makes replacing Trudeau against his will seem unlikely. Besides, internal dissent is risky business in Canadian partisan politics with most who have led such coups forfeiting their own future in the process.
The NDP will actually play a more significant role in this story than much of the punditry seems to account for. In the ordinary course of minority governments, the two-year mark is the time when political interests conspire to force another election. This time that seems unlikely. This Liberal minority government has the added cover of the Supply and Confidence agreement that pledges NDP support until 2025. Although, Mr. Singh holds his own in favorability ratings, support for the NDP is actually lower than it was in the last election. The NDP faces the challenge that faces any party supporting a minority government–they get little of the credit for any of the initiatives they negotiate.
The NDP also faces some very practical issues. Their fundraising is well behind the other parties. The party has been financing recent campaigns on debt, which means they need time to pay off the last campaign and are ill-equipped to force an early election. But leaving the election call to the Liberals reinforces the perception the NDP is a secondary and not the main player in the mix. It’s hard to compete for votes with that brand. So it would seem that finding an issue or event that could justify breaking the Supply and Confidence Agreement, triggering an election, and asserting their independence is strategic for the NDP to even hold their own in the next election. Beyond their role in splitting the vote (alongside the Bloc Quebecois and People’s Party of Canada), the NDP is unlikely to be that relevant a consideration for voters focused on who ends up in government. The NDP faces a major challenge unless their campaign manages to have “sniper success” on a key issue or two, redefining the war that the other major parties will be fighting.
The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)–currently holding 32 of Quebec’s 78 seats in the House of Commons–plays a different game than all of the other parties. Their appeal to Quebecers essentially amounts to “It doesn’t matter which party forms government; your interests are better served by Quebecers having a self-interested voice representing you.” I don’t understand Quebec well enough to make any intelligent prediction as to the extent the Quebec landscape has changed since 2021. Immigration, culture, and language issues play very differently in Quebec than elsewhere. That makes the likelihood of “events” changing the script much more likely there than in the rest of the country. While polls suggest that the Conservatives and the Bloc are doing the best at “holding” their 2021 voters, it is very difficult to predict how shifting voting patterns will translate into seats won by each party.
The People's Party of Canada (PPC) led by Maxime Bernier relies on a similar political calculus to the BQ although on a much smaller scale. Still, they introduce a notable dynamic in certain close races. While the PPC is unlikely to win even a single seat (if they didn’t in the post-COVID intensity of 2021, they are less likely now, and recent by-elections can only be a disappointment to PPC loyalists.) However, even five percent of the vote, especially in specific southwestern and eastern Ontario ridings, could decide who wins those seats in a tight race. Flipping a dozen or so of those might determine who wins government.
This brings us to the poll-leading Conservatives. Their present priorities and tactics seem to focus on internal organization and building the appearance of momentum. Large rallies are designed to win press and to sign up people who can volunteer and donate. Aiming to soften the leader’s image, the significant summer advertising buy “Who is Pierre Poilievre?” profiles him in the context of his relationships. Withholding any defining policy proposals until the campaign, The Conservatives prefer to attack the government and stay out of the way so that the aging Liberal government can defeat itself.
At the end of the day, each political campaign divides voters into three boxes. There are the core supporters who voted for you last time and will likely again this time. The campaign's aim is to identify and translate this base enthusiasm into donations and resources, and to motivate them to get out and vote. But everyone voting the same as they did last time doesn’t help anyone get ahead. There is a second box of voters who are inaccessible. They are unlikely to vote for you no matter what you do or say. For the most part, parties ignore them, although if you can come up with things that demotivate them from voting for your opponent, you do it. But spending any significant time or attention on that group is a waste of resources.
The vote-switchers are where it’s at. Generally, these voters are less engaged in politics than their more partisan-loyal neighbours, sometimes hardly paying attention or making up their minds until close to voting day. It’s a two-part sale that’s required: convincing them it’s worth voting and then making sure the vote is for you. In Canadian elections where these switchers live is more important than who they are. In each of the past two elections, the Conservatives got the most votes overall but the Liberals won the most seats. There are fifty ridings in which the margin was less than five percent of the votes cast. Getting just 1,000 voters to switch (or non-voters to vote) in each of these ridings can change the seat count enough to change government. It’s not hard to predict where the voter ID efforts, the leaders’ attention, and the heavy advertising dollars will be directed.
For political geeks, punditry is fun. I’ll admit to regularly visiting seat projection sites like 338canada.com which translate current polls into future seat projections. The only thing you can be sure of is that the projection is wrong and some of us spend too much time figuring out whose algorithms are most accurate. But it is important to always remind yourself when reading a headline, the election isn’t being held today. The campaign between now and then will almost certainly change things.
But while punditry can be fun, fun isn’t the right word to describe the huge implications for our public-spirited fellow citizens who put their names on ballots for what is increasingly a thankless job. Add to the appreciation list the literally thousands of volunteers who pound in election signs, canvass neighbours, and volunteer in campaign offices. And then there are the consequences for the next several years. Politics isn’t just a game of winners and losers.
For all its flaws, we still live in one of the freest democracies in the world and have the opportunity to steward our citizenship and find active ways to contribute to the public good. My guess is translating that into an X on the ballot won’t happen anytime soon, but it is still worth our attention. The success or failure of these various strategies will significantly impact our lives.
WHAT I’M READING
China’s Forcing a Choice
The ongoing economic challenges facing China have gotten a fair bit of ink this week. The Economist titled its cover story “China’s disillusioned youth” with a look at the impact of tighter government control over the past decade. Although the analysis shows widespread disenchantment, especially among the younger crowd, this is unlikely to lead to revolution as it did in the Eighties, but rather “a quiet rejection of (the Communist Party’s) ambitions.” The New York Times analyzed China’s “real estate crisis” with its consequent “dizzying ride” for the broader economy. The Globe and Mail reported on a modest reduction of Chinese interest rates and a weakening currency. Todd Hirsch opined on how Canada is paying an economic price for its stand on China (not least of all in our tourism sector) but has little choice given the import of staying on-side with the United States. Hirsh ended by challenging his readers: “Do we stand firm to our valued principles of democracy, liberty and human rights–even if it means a certain sacrificing of parts of our economy?”
Progressive Concerns on ESG
Payday lending is part of the way many working poor, unable to qualify for regular bank loans or credit cards, make their way through a short-term crisis. My colleagues Brian Dijkema and Johanna Lewis, writing in the Globe and Mail, point out how well-intentioned steps to regulate this industry might actually be creating barriers that are driving a growing segment of this industry underground.
Interest and Inflation
Peter Hall is always an interesting read and in this week’s Financial Post article, he challenges the prevailing wisdom that continued interest rate hikes are required in the fight against inflation. Hall notes that the “potion” of raising interest rates has done effective work in lowering the post-pandemic inflation surge. At this stage, while mortgage rates are just 3.46 percent of the CPI basket used to calculate inflation, the 30.6 percent growth in mortgage interest costs impacts almost every mortgage renewal, elevating overall inflation by nearly one percent with serious ripple effects throughout the economy. Hall recommends focusing on the CPI net of mortgage interest rate costs, which brings current calculations closer to the two percent mandated target. “The potion seems to be working [but] too much can be lethal” is Hall’s counsel.
Judging Decisions
Two court decisions to note this week. The Ontario Superior Court ruled that Dr. Jordan Peterson, a registered psychologist, could be required by the College of Psychologists of Ontario to complete a specified remedial “coaching” program in response to some of his public statements. Peterson, also a prominent author with a significant public profile, argued this would violate his right to free speech, but the court judged that the College’s request is reasonable. Peterson has indicated he will appeal the decision. Meanwhile, the same court also ruled this week in favour of a Jewish advocacy group for religious education who have argued that Ontario’s funding for only Catholic religious schools is discriminatory. The Ontario and Canadian governments jointly brought forward a motion that this application should be dismissed as it has “no reasonable prospect of success” given Canada’s constitutional history and previous court decisions on the matter. The Superior Court this week dismissed the Ontario government’s application (the federal government was absolved of the case for reasons of jurisdiction over education) meaning that the court will hear the case on its merits. The court cited changing international treaty commitments that Canada has signed, an amendment to Section 93 of the constitution, and the changing understanding of “state neutrality” in recent years as changed circumstances that justify giving the case a full hearing.
MEANINGFUL METRICS
Building BRICS
The 15th annual BRICS summit (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) took place this past week in Johannesburg. BRICS has emerged as an alternative economic and political bloc to the G7 and has more clout than coverage in our part of the world. The combined BRICS GDP has recently surpassed that of the G7. This economic power is being accompanied by decidedly different geopolitical interests, made especially evident by the varying responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Putin, unable to attend in person because he is wanted for war crimes, used his video address to the meeting to rally support.
This week’s summit highlighted that these countries are not without their internal divisions, especially as it relates to who might be included in an expanded bloc that is seen as strategic for their global clout. While some, such as Brazil insist that the motive is not to become a counterweight to the G7, China’s delegates used the summit to highlight the need to counter Western dominance of global institutions. Still, the summit expanded the BRICS bloc to include six new countries with an additional 20 countries, primarily authoritarian states, also having applied.
TAKE IT TO-GO
Labour Day Lyrics
Given that my photo headlines this newsletter, some might think Insights is a solo effort. Labour Day seems a good time to remind readers that this is off-key. The score actually involves a quartet that works in wonderful harmony. Daniel and Stephen provide backup, editing and fact-checking to ensure the content is worthy of the Cardus label. Dayna does double-duty providing both the descant of graphic design and the bass beat of an up-to-date database to keep us all in rhythm. Together this quartet has the Insights production process rocking. (I’ll let Daniel and Stephen sort out between them who is actually on electric or bass guitar.)
Not only is Labour Day an occasion to acknowledge and thank the members of the team, it also marks a long weekend on which we typically pause publication. I will be taking a rest from my Cardus staff duties, heading to Nashville with several thousand others for the Sing conference. It may be known as the home of country music but the Gettys get guests that cross the traditional, classical, folk and contemporary genres with even a bit of rap mixed in. After tenor eleven sessions on worship music of all kinds, I’m sure I’ll have tunes of all types to tap my toes to. But regardless of the rest you manage to score next weekend, there is no need to sing the blues. It won’t be much more than a staccato note or two before Insights marches back into your inbox on September 9th. Happy Labour Day!
