Political Survivor Options

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HERE'S MY TAKE

“Chaos.” “Crazytown.” “Crisis.” Many words have been used to describe the political happenings of this week. “Increasing confidence in Canada” was not among them. It started at 9:07 a.m. ET on Monday with the posting of a resignation letter by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, blindsiding the government and setting off a week of disarray. Friday morning’s cabinet shuffle was virtually interrupted by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s letter vowing to vote to bring the government down, no matter who is leading the Liberal party – something he was unwilling to do on Monday or during several opportunities through Parliament’s fall sitting. Given that all of the opposition parties have now indicated they are ready to vote non-confidence in the government, the only remaining question seems to be when and how we get to the election that would follow such a vote.

Frankly, the election-timing question is one that can’t be answered with full certainty, but it’s worth digging through the possibilities of this particularly tumultuous time in our national life.

The variable in the story is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Friday’s media reports provided mixed messages as to what Mr. Trudeau might be thinking. Officially, he is “reflecting,” and as I write this on Friday afternoon, he has not yet answered any questions publicly regarding the crisis even while shuffling his cabinet. There is plenty of speculation about his likely course of action, but I have neither insight nor inside information to provide any certainty.

When evaluating the various theories being floated, it is important to distinguish between legalities and politics. As the supporters of Paul Martin learned the hard way two decades ago, polls and even control of a political party can make life difficult for a prime minister, but they don’t remove him. In Mr. Martin’s case, it took years for a sitting prime minister to be forced to resign. The fixed election date is less than a year away, is less than a year away, but it seems that if Mr. Trudeau decides he wants to “hold on” as long as he can, he has options.

Whatever one thinks of Mr. Trudeau’s politics, he sincerely believes that his vision for Canada is superior to any other on offer. He frequently cites his government’s climate change policy, gender policies, and a growing array of social programs as his legacy. He seems confident that his success in negotiating the USMCA agreement with the previous Trump administration makes him the best qualified to deal with any challenges that follow the American presidential inauguration on January 20. Canada is the host of the G7 summit in June 2025 which puts the sitting prime minister in a position of considerable international influence in setting the agenda. Mr. Trudeau can reasonably argue that this position will help advance policies he cares about. Trudeau is also a fighter with considerable political skills, and if there is an opponent that motivates him and whom he would relish beating, it is Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the opposition and leader of the Conservatives. Add to this three other reasons why Mr. Trudeau would want to resist demands he resign: personal motives to establish his legacy, the fact that this is the best job he will ever have in his life, and his own sense of pride. It was as late as July 21, 2015, that the Guardian headlined a story “Canada’s Liberals face bleak future – is it too late for Justin Trudeau to save them?” Four months later he was the prime minister leading a majority Liberal government.

The procedural steps to avoid a non-confidence vote in Parliament until late February or March have been well-documented. There has also been discussion of the prorogation possibility. (Notably, most analysts seem to think that would require his giving notice of his resignation as Liberal leader and prime minister at a later date, rationalizing the prorogation as an opportunity for a Liberal leadership selection process.) Could this provide a way to hold on until the late spring or even long enough to host the G7 summit? As I note in What I’m Reading below, there is some debate regarding what the governor general might do with such a prorogation request, but the precedent seems to be that it would likely be granted.

I’m not arguing that these options are likely, just that they are available to the prime minister. Put yourself in his shoes. Resigning now means giving in to opponents and ending his political career. “If it’s going to end, why not hold on as long as possible?” he could be thinking. “I can advance my own agenda as well as delay Mr. Poilievre from implementing his harmful agenda. And who knows what happens in the meantime?” This approach leaves open the possibility of events occurring which might change Liberal electoral prospects as unlikely as that seems right now.

Of course, hanging on as long as possible through legal means, does not make it a practical option. The only way I can imagine a cling-to-power approach working would be by striking a new deal with the NDP. It seems like a longshot but what if Mr. Trudeau announced a cross-partisan team (there were rumours floating last week that involved former Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley and former Ontario PC leader John Tory – among others – possibly receiving federal appointments.) Is it too far-fetched to imagine a major announcement of a cross-partisan “Team Canada” initiative to deal with the issues that the inauguration of U.S. President Trump will force on January 20th? What if that initiative not only involves a team of cross-partisan luminaries but a signature bold policy approach? Could the NDP’s support be “bought” for three to six months in exchange for another major policy initiative that Mr. Singh’s party can claim it “won” for Canadians?

Of course, Mr. Trudeau's unwillingness to resign might make the legal process difficult and complicated, increasing the political pressure that he will face. Even if the support of the NDP can be bought back, the support of his own Liberal party isn’t a given. As of Friday afternoon, 19 MPs have publicly called for his resignation, and a reported 60-plus have signed a letter urging Trudeau’s resignation. Eight MPs were promoted to cabinet on Friday, but that leaves all of the others who did not make it with an additional reason to resent the prime minister. That said, Liberal MPs have not shown themselves to be overly bold in the years that led to this crisis. Short of them actually sending a letter to House Speaker Greg Fergus seeking to be seated as independent MPs and not part of the Liberal caucus, the internal party dynamics will likely be more of a headache than a barrier. So, words of discontent now being spoken publicly for the first time are more “sound and fury” than consequential.

I realize that suggesting “the NDP can be bought” with a policy proposal seems disrespectful. But bear with me. Let’s remember that until Friday morning, Mr. Singh was unwilling to commit to voting non-confidence in the Liberal government, maintaining that “all options were on the table.” Let’s also remember the widely recognized fact that the NDP is the least election-ready of any of the parties in terms of cash and candidates. So, it isn’t a stretch to suggest that Friday’s letter declaring they would vote non-confidence may not be a set-in-stone position if the NDP can be sweet-talked into providing an extra three to six months of life for the Liberal government in exchange for a major policy “win” to sell to voters. Besides, the same polls with dismal prospects for the Liberals have similar outcomes for the NDP, suggesting a real possibility of losing seats if an election were called today.

Besides the behaviours of the other political players, there are many external factors that will come into play. We have yet to see whether investors will accept that Mr. Trudeau’s refurbished cabinet is adequate to provide a stable government in difficult times. Those answers will come in the real responses of the stock markets, investment decisions made or not made, and declarations by business organizations. Given the realities that at best the government has less than a year to go, there will be temptations for the most talented cabinet ministers, staffers, (and even the prime minister himself) to jump at an opportunity for a post-political gig that might be offered now but not be available a year from now. There seems little margin for any other significant departures from this government.

I hear the objections. Isn’t this all kind of cynical? What about the good of the country? Yes, politics is messy and watching the sausage being made doesn’t inspire patriotism (or whet appetites). However, understanding the basic gravitational forces that shape political behaviour is essential to evaluating the predictions. I take it as a given that the Liberals believe their “values” as expressed in their government policies are better for Canada than the alternatives. The NDP is selling itself as having won what it would call “important programs for Canadians” such as dental and pharmacare. Adding to that list would only seem a success to them. It’s not hard for politicians to rationalize that their political success is for the good of the country.

This all brings us back to the primary political gravitational forces. My best estimate is that the current government won’t last much longer and there will be a federal election by April 2025, likely sooner. But it’s no sure thing. As this week reminded us, expect the unexpected and be ready to deal with political realities in 2025 that aren’t entirely foreseeable today.

I’m looking forward to joining you for the ride with our weekly Insights over the next weeks and months. Though interesting, these events do speak to the troubling times in which we live. However, it is especially when those feelings arise that I take comfort in being able to consider these things within the framework of a Christian perspective. I can’t predict the future, but I do know the past, namely that although the world is broken and sinful, there is hope in the person and work of Jesus Christ. Immanuel – God with us! That is what we celebrate during the Christmas season. So here is wishing all Insights readers a most blessed Christmas celebration and a prosperous 2025. 

WHAT I’M READING

Power, Procedures, and Polls

In the midst of the political confusion of the week, there were various interesting takes that stood out. Andrew Coyne highlighted how Canadian prime ministers have more power than their comparable counterparts. Emmett Macfarlane waded in on the constitutional niceties regarding proroguing Parliament. David Coletto reported on an Abacus poll conducted overnight on Monday to get an immediate reaction to Chrystia Freeland’s resignation. Interestingly, 48% of those over 45 were following the story with only 13% having not heard about it. For those 18-44, 34% followed it while 27% had not heard about it. It’s a topic for another day, but I’m fascinated by how differently news travels and how much attention different demographic groups pay to it.

Uncharitable Humanists

The British Columbia Humanist Association recommended in its federal pre-budget 2025 submission that the government remove charitable status from all anti-abortion organizations and end the “advancement of religion” as a legal charitable purpose These recommendations were passed on by the Parliamentary Finance Committee in their report tabled this week (see recommendations 429 and 430). It is interesting to note that the B.C. Humanist Association is one of nine registered charities that come up in a search of CRA’s database using “humanist” as a search term. In addition to charitable status, it would appear that the Humanist Association of Canada includes $26,332 of government funding in its report.

Euthanasia Abuse

The euthanasia file continues to make news but what makes this story unique is that it highlights the concerns of the British Columbia Civil Liberties Association (BCCLA), one of the original advocates for the introduction of euthanasia. The BCCLA is considering “adopting either a modified or a new policy around our position on MAiD in light of the fact … that it’s being abused.”

Blocking Puberty Blockers

MEANINGFUL METRICS

Energy Supply Chains

Ontario and Alberta are advocating very different approaches to the threat of U.S. tariffs being imposed in Canada. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has threatened “cutting off” energy while Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has advocated a “diplomatic approach.” The federal Fall Economic Statement tabled this week highlighted the importance of cross-border energy flows, noting that $173 billion of oil and gas is exported from Canada to the United States, representing approximately 60% of all U.S. oil imports. At $4.3 billion, electricity exports are much less significant but still an important part of the supply chain, particularly for north-eastern seaboard states. One expects significant energy to be spent by governments on both sides of the 49th sorting through how to stabilize a reliable energy flow through the potential tariff crisis.

TAKE IT TO-GO

Christmas Greetings

This being the last Insights of 2024, let me take the occasion to highlight the contributions of my colleagues Daniel Proussalidis, who edits and fact-checks my musings, and Dayna Hillier who takes care of layout and database matters (as well as other colleagues who have contributed throughout the year). It may be my name which headlines Insights, but each edition is a team effort, and I am indebted not only to Daniel and Dayna but all of my Cardus colleagues who pass along useful links and often unconsciously contribute to my musings through the lunch-time and coffee machine conversations where my musings often are first tested. “Iron sharpens iron,” the Scriptures tell us and I am blessed to work alongside a wonderful group of people who challenge and improve each other’s thinking.

Without readers, there is no newsletter. Insights has been blessed with significant organic growth this past year and a consistently high open rate. Your interest and engagement, also through regular emails and texts of response, are a great encouragement to the Cardus team and we thank you for your support. We also thank the many donors who provide the resources that enable us to do what we do.

On behalf of all of us, let me extend best wishes for a wonderful Christmas celebration and a most prosperous 2025. We will be taking a break next week. However, I hope to be back in your inbox on Saturday, January 4th.