Tipping Point for Education

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HERE'S MY TAKE

North American education is at a tipping point of significant change. This means it is very likely that our grandchildren will receive an education very different from what our kids experienced.

Let’s begin with the context of this tipping point.

The front line of today’s North American culture war runs right through our classrooms. Many argue that left-wing ideologues dominating teachers’ unions have captured the education system. The case can be made that the university sector, the news media, and Hollywood are also on the front lines of the culture war. However, K-12 education is certainly there too. The monopolistic dominance of district schools means that postal codes determine which school most kids attend, irrespective of parental preferences. What’s more, when the curriculum in those schools espouses values that may clash with those of students’ families, the social challenge becomes that much sharper.

So, we have a clash over how education is organized and the values it incorporates.

This system is disappointing many in terms of outcomes. The go-to measure for these discussions is the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) developed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). By way of background, PISA reports compare the proficiency of 15-year-olds in over 80 countries regarding math, science, and reading. Canada ranks sixth overall, while the United States ranks eighteenth. Math scores in particular have driven down the rankings of the American education system. What these overall numbers mask is that the United States has a far greater results gap between higher- and lower-income families than does Canada. This also includes factors such as school safety, the form of education delivered during COVID (given that the latest PISA tests were administered in 2022), and other similar factors. The calculations are complicated and take various details into account, but it appears that socio-economic factors account for eight to nine percent of Canada’s result, while they account for 12 to 14 percent of the American result, which is much closer to the OECD average of socio-economic effects accounting for 14 to 16 percent of results. (Thanks to AI for doing these calculations for me, working from the OECD technical report.)

To get an idea of the clash over education measurement, have a look at Alberta. There, critics of the education status quo see disaster in PISA numbers. Meanwhile, supporters of the status quo see amazing success in the same numbers.

More important than the precise numbers is the main point: educational outcomes are not just about math, science, and reading. Schools operate on the principle of in loco parentis (in the place of parents), a principle echoed in Article 29 of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, which affirms that education must be directed to the “development of the child’s personality, talents, and mental and physical abilities to their fullest potential,” recognizing both the role of parents and the supportive role of schools under state responsibility. This has been turned into a political football in North America these days. Many consider “choice” as a narrower view of education, where parents’ concern is primarily for the education of their own kids, rather than the education of all kids. The development of public education systems (first championed by religious groups, with primary responsibility eventually transferred to the state) was seen as a vehicle for social cohesion. The idea was that by educating children of diverse immigrant and religious backgrounds together, schools would cultivate a common national identity and inculcate the skills required for an effective democracy.

The challenge today is that education has been weaponized by many in a culture war where national identity is contested. It’s an oversimplistic reduction, but the tendency on the left is to focus on social identity, considering equity and global citizenship especially. Meanwhile, on the right, the focus is more on moral identity, equipping students to contribute to society and to develop a sense of patriotism. While there was once a greater emphasis on both/and approaches, which balanced the emphases of both sides, these debates today tend to fall more into the either/or category. This makes the question of who controls the education system more pertinent. Consequently, defenders of the status quo see any alternative to government-run, district schools as a threat in a zero-sum competition for dollars and students. This makes it very difficult to achieve a truly pluralistic model in which families have schooling options as governments fund and regulate, but don’t necessarily deliver, education. It should be noted that this type of pluralism manifests itself differently in each jurisdiction. Most Canadian provinces provide some support for independent education (Ontario being a notable exception) while various other models, including education savings accounts or other school choice mechanisms, are burgeoning in the United States.

All of this sets the stage for why I argued this week in a Cardus brainstorming session about our education program that we are nearing a tipping point. That’s not a prediction. Rather, it comes from an analysis of several variables which make change in education more likely than not. Consider the following:

• COVID created a more granular awareness among parents than anything ever before of the education their kids were receiving. Parents were generally not thrilled with what they saw.
  
  
• Increasing numbers of parents are “voting with their feet” by seeking alternatives to district government schools—whether through independent schools, homeschooling, or hybrid options. Demand far exceeds capacity for these alternatives. Dr. Deani VanPelt provided a detailed paper for Cardus on these trends in 2023.
  
  
• Technology in general, and artificial intelligence in particular, are introducing massive changes to in-classroom education delivery (for good and ill). It even challenges our understanding of the teaching and learning process between an instructor and student, as well as the extent to which the physical classroom will continue to be the anchor of education.
  
  
• There is a general sense (especially among the business community) that the education system isn’t adequately producing what we need for economic success, innovation, and productivity. The system graduates many high achievers, but the typical graduate often requires remedial education that the system was expected to provide but failed to deliver. Private tutoring continues to grow at a rate of almost 10 percent per year. (See Meaningful Metrics below or just look for the closest Kumon location in your neighbourhood.) I can’t quantify it, but I’ve heard many anecdotes of businesses introducing training programs that aim to build skills or literacy that, a decade or two ago, the education system would have provided.
  
  
• Different (and in some cases old) models of learning are challenging the modern notion of the classroom that focuses on students as “brains on sticks.” (I understand the foregoing sentence is an exaggeration. However, I want to illustrate a point that while educational thinking has always considered whole-person learning, including the physical, emotional, social, and spiritual dimensions of life, it has arguably viewed those dimensions as secondary to the cognitive.) Among these different models, we have Montessori (where a teacher is a facilitator of child-directed, activity-based learning); Waldorf (with its greater emphasis on story-telling and the arts as well as teachers who stay with a group of students for multiple years); and Charlotte Mason (a holistic philosophy of education that focuses on cultivating a curiosity for learning, lots of outdoor activity, and the development of good habits).

All of the issues above will play their roles. In the short term, however, individual educational decisions are made in real time in response to immediate and local circumstances. Where will I enroll my child this year? What curriculum choices should be made? Who ultimately controls the education system and makes hiring decisions for it? There are real, immediate, and complex factors to consider in each. Alberta’s teachers’ strike, scheduled to commence on October 6, is just one example of this. While some short-term solutions and band-aids can help deal with acute issues, this is just one of many decisions that will influence the longer-term trajectory of education. My contention is that the forces I’ve just outlined will combine for an inevitably dramatic effect on how North Americans deliver education. The present and more local disputes, like Alberta’s labour troubles, have more to do with whether a jurisdiction will be in the fast or slow lane in adapting to those changes.

This isn’t a prediction about what education will look like in the future and whether it will be better or worse. I am quite confident, however, that it will be different, likely quite significantly so.

WHAT I’M READING

Hope for Peace

Here’s a sentence I never thought I’d read in The Economist: “For dragging the negotiations to reality, Mr. Trump and his team deserve praise.” That’s the magazine’s take on a Gaza peace deal proposed by the US president, which also has the backing of Israel and many Arab states. Hamas hasn’t signed onto it yet, but it hasn’t rejected it either. The deal would see Hamas release all its Israeli hostages almost immediately, while “Hamas leaders and fighters would disarm and be granted amnesty or exile.” Meanwhile, a “technocratic administration that excludes Hamas would take over” and would operate under the supervision of an international board. 

Conservatives for Structural Change

Dan Robertson is a prominent Conservative backroomer and has served as a national campaign manager for the Conservative Party. In an interesting essay in The Hub, he reflected on the reality that “Liberal vote efficiency, progressive strategic voting, and weaker partisan identification all tilt the field” against Conservative political success within Canada’s current electoral system. He advocates for proportional representation, mandatory voting, and a coalition model with Quebec nationalists as serious options for Conservatives to consider if they wish to achieve political success and influence in Canada.

When Trust is Gone

My colleague Brian Dijkema notes that whereas he once was among those defending the judiciary against charges of judge-made law, today his trust in the courts is gone as “the facts have changed.” Today, he says, ” I have no idea how (the courts) will come to their decisions, seeing as the former guidepost of precedent appears to no longer matter much. The rise of such things as ‘charter values’ and [former chief justice Beverley] McLachlin’s doctrine of ‘progressive interpretation’ now seems to be the dominant lens. Both those things—‘values’ and ‘progressivism’—are both extremely vague and seem to belong properly in the sphere of politics, where we can ask questions of people who are accountable to answer them. This is a massive loss and it shakes me even now to know that the courts are about as reliable and predictable as any political player in our country, which is to say, not at all.”

Terrorism Left or Right

Terrorism is immoral. Thankfully, most in our society, wherever they land on the left-right political spectrum, are clear-minded enough to condemn it without equivocation. Still, as the recent assassination of Charlie Kirk demonstrated, some are quick to “blame” a particular ideology for the killing. Notably, those same voices were less prominent in blaming an ideology for a murderous rampage at a Latter-day Saints worship service in Michigan last week. In almost every case, domestic terrorism is a complex web of difficult individual choices and circumstances on the part of the perpetrator. Neither the “guilt by association” nor the “what aboutism” that dominates subsequent public debates is helpful. Even so, this does not mean that we should ignore aggregate trends. An essay in The Atlantic (not at all a publication typically identified as right-wing) highlights that 2025 marks the first time in 20 years that the incidents of left-wing violence outnumber those of right-wing violence in the United States.

MEANINGFUL METRICS

Tutoring a Growth Industry

It’s a private report that requires $2,500 to examine in depth, so I’ll offer Technavio a complimentary ad and rely on publicly available information to highlight the underappreciated significance of the tutoring industry in our education system. Cardus has followed this and commissioned Peter Stockland to conduct an investigative report in 2018, exploring the extent to which our educational outcomes, supposedly provided by an equity-based educational model, were being subsidized by private tutoring for families that could afford it. While part of this is driven by families with high aspirations for their children's academic excellence, part of it is also remedial

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TAKE IT TO-GO

Turkey Time

The usual four-course meal served by Insights provides a dessert of wordplay for readers to gobble up as they wish. Some tell me it’s more like stuffing that they don’t like (although they also have usually tasted enough to have adequate specific knowledge to razz me about my corny humour), but it has come to be expected, and I do my best to ensure that there are enough dad jokes for all. However, there are also occasions when one doesn’t need to get too carried away with hamming things up. Ironically, Thanksgiving is one of those. While we appropriately comment in this newsletter on the various concerns we face in our time, it is also fitting to remind ourselves of the many blessings we share, for which we give thanks and praise to God. I aim to offer insightful commentary in a public forum that is relevant to all readers, regardless of whether they profess the Christian faith, while also being transparent about my prior assumptions and their relevance. Stopping to acknowledge and give thanks to God is an appropriate way to do so. “Give thanks to the Lord for He is good, for His steadfast love endures forever.” (Psalm 136:1).

Wishing all Insights readers a blessed Thanksgiving. Insights will skip next week and return to your inbox on October 18.